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Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not

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Abstract

I combine microdata on the intertemporal marginal propensity to consume with 10 structural macro shocks to identify the role of intertemporal substitution in consumption behavior. Although some of the structural shocks that I examine lead to large and persistent changes in real interest rates—which in many models would induce a large intertemporal substitution effect—I find no evidence that households shift the timing of their consumption in response to these interest rate changes. Indeed, changes to the expected path of income explain almost all the aggregate consumption response, leaving no role for intertemporal substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Edmund Crawley, 2025. "Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-021, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-21
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2025.021
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2025021pap.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intertemporal Substitution; HANK; Monetary Policy; Consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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