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Monetary Policy Shocks: Data or Methods?

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Abstract

Different series of high-frequency monetary shocks can have a correlation coefficient as low as 0.5 and the same sign in only two-thirds of observations. Both data and methods drive these differences, which are starkest when the federal funds rate is at its effective lower bound. Methods that exploit the differential responsiveness of short- and long-term asset prices can incorporate additional information. After documenting differences in monetary shocks, we explore their consequence for inference. We find that empirical estimates of monetary policy transmission from local projections and VARs are less affected by shock choice than forecast revision specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Connor M. Brennan & Margaret M. Jacobson & Christian Matthes & Todd B. Walker, 2024. "Monetary Policy Shocks: Data or Methods?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-011, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-11
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.011
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    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
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    6. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 2213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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    Cited by:

    1. Acosta, Miguel & Brennan, Connor M. & Jacobson, Margaret M., 2024. "Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    High-frequency monetary policy shocks; Monetary policy transmission; Empirical monetary economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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