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The Propagation of Demand Shocks Through Housing Markets

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Abstract

Housing demand stimulus produces a multiplier effect by freeing up owners attempting to sell their current home, allowing them to re-enter the market as buyers and triggering a chain of further transactions. Exploiting a shock to first-time home buyer demand caused by the 2015 surprise cut in Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance premiums, we find that homeowners buy their next home sooner when the probability of their current home selling increases. This effect is especially pronounced in cold housing markets, in which homes take a long time to sell. We build and calibrate a model of the joint buyer-seller search decision that explains these findings as a result of homeowners avoiding the cost of owning two homes simultaneously. Simulations of the model demonstrate that stimulus to home buying generates a substantial multiplier effect, particularly in cold housing markets.

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  • Elliot Anenberg & Daniel R. Ringo, 2019. "The Propagation of Demand Shocks Through Housing Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2019-84
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2019.084
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    1. María Pía Olivero & Mikheil Dvalishvili, 2023. "What do fiscal stimulus packages mean for household debt?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 282-299, April.

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    Keywords

    Housing search; Housing stimulus; Multiplier effects; Joint buyer-seller;
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