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An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes: Determinants and Policy Implications

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Abstract

Margin regulation raises two policy concerns. First, an alignment of margins to volatility can amplify procyclicality, leading to a build-up of excess leverage in good times and a forced deleverage in bad times. Second, competition among central counterparties (CCPs) can result in lower margin levels in order to attract more trading volume, which is referred to as a \"race to the bottom.\" Motivated by these issues, we empirically analyze the determinants of margin changes by using a data set of various futures margins from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group. We first find that CME Group raises margins quickly following volatility spikes but does not immediately lower margins following volatility declines, implying that margin-induced procyclicality is more of a concern in recessions than in expansions. In addition, we find some evidence that the margin difference between CME Group and its competitor, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), is an important driver of margin changes after changes in other margin determinants are controlled for, implying that competition may be factored into margin setting.

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  • Nicole Abruzzo & Yang-Ho Park, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes: Determinants and Policy Implications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-86, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-86
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    Cited by:

    1. Arianna Miglietta & Cristina Picillo & Mario Pietrunti, 2015. "The impact of CCPs' margin policies on repo markets," BIS Working Papers 515, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Jarrow, Robert A. & Kwok, Simon S., 2023. "Futures contract collateralization and its implications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Jin, YangKyu & Suh, Sangwon, 2024. "Procyclical variation margins in central clearing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Margin; futures; volatility; central counterparties; procyclicality; race to the bottom; Dodd-Frank Act;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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