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Estimating machinery supply elasticities using output price booms

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  • Jesse Edgerton

Abstract

Recent years have seen large increases in the prices of houses, farm products, and oil, often with little clear connection to economic fundamentals. These price increases created plausibly exogenous shifts in demand for construction, farm, and mining machinery. This paper uses these demand shifts to estimate the elasticity of machinery supply. Graphical evidence, OLS, and IV estimates all indicate that the quantity of machinery supplied increased rapidly during the booms, with only modest increases in prices. Pooled sample estimates of the supply elasticity are around 5, much larger than the estimate of 1 from Goolsbee (1998). Results thus suggest that public policies that stimulate investment demand will have only modest effects on the prices of investment goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesse Edgerton, 2011. "Estimating machinery supply elasticities using output price booms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Shea, 1993. "Do Supply Curves Slope Up?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 1-32.
    2. Karl Whelan, 1999. "Tax incentives, material inputs, and the supply curve for capital equipment," Open Access publications 10197/248, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2002. "A New Specification Test for the Validity of Instrumental Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 163-189, January.
    4. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    5. Austan Goolsbee, 1998. "Investment Tax Incentives, Prices, and the Supply of Capital Goods," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 121-148.
    6. Hansen, Christian & Hausman, Jerry & Newey, Whitney, 2008. "Estimation With Many Instrumental Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 398-422.
    7. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    8. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Devadoss, Stephen & Gibson, Mark J. & Luckstead, Jeff, 2016. "The Impact of Agricultural Subsidies on the Corn Market with Farm Heterogeneity and Endogenous Entry and Exit," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-20, September.

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    Keywords

    Manufacturing industries; Capital investments; Elasticity (Economics);
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