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How does the market interpret analysts' long-term growth forecasts?

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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of inflation on stock valuations and expected long-run returns. Ex ante estimates of expected long-run returns are constructed by incorporating analysts' earnings forecasts into a variant of the Campbell-Shiller dividend-price ratio model. The negative relation between equity valuations and expected inflation is found to be the result of two effects: a rise in expected inflation coincides with both (i) lower expected real earnings growth and (ii) higher required real returns. The earnings channel mostly reflects a negative relation between expected long-term earnings growth and expected inflation. The effect of expected inflation on required (long-run) real stock returns is also substantial. A one percentage point increase in expected inflation is estimated to raise required real stock returns about one percentage point, which on average would imply a 20 percent decline in stock prices. But the inflation factor in expected real stock returns is also in long-term Treasury yields; consequently, expected inflation has little effect on the long-run equity premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "How does the market interpret analysts' long-term growth forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2002-7
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    1. Patricia M. Dechow & Amy P. Hutton & Richard G. Sloan, 2000. "The Relation between Analysts' Forecasts of Long†Term Earnings Growth and Stock Price Performance Following Equity Offerings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Lynn Coronado & Steven A. Sharpe, 2003. "Did Pension Plan Accounting Contribute to a Stock Market Bubble?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 323-371.
    2. Ulrike Malmendier & Devin Shanthikumar, 2014. "Do Security Analysts Speak in Two Tongues?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1287-1322.

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