IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/1999-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why does the change in shares predict stock returns?

Author

Listed:
  • William R. Nelson

Abstract

The stock of firms that issue equity has, on average, performed poorly in subsequent years, while the stock of firms that repurchase has typically done well. One explanation for this pattern is that firms are exploiting their superior knowledge about the value of their stock by buying it when it is undervalued and selling it when it is overvalued. This paper presents supporting evidence for this explanation of the excess returns: The change in shares outstanding is positively correlated with proxies for the deviation of current stock prices from fundamental value; the excess returns following the change in shares remain significant after controlling for these proxies; and the changes in shares that can be explained by the proxies predict stock returns more powerfully than changes in shares explained by other reasons.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. Nelson, 1999. "Why does the change in shares predict stock returns?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199907/199907abs.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199907/199907pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    3. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
    4. Masulis, Ronald W. & Korwar, Ashok N., 1986. "Seasoned equity offerings : An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 91-118.
    5. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1997. "The Operating Performance of Firms Conducting Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1823-1850, December.
    6. Dann, Larry Y., 1981. "Common stock repurchases : An analysis of returns to bondholders and stockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 113-138, June.
    7. Mikkelson, Wayne H. & Partch, M. Megan, 1986. "Valuation effects of security offerings and the issuance process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 31-60.
    8. Berk, Jonathan B, 1995. "A Critique of Size-Related Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 275-286.
    9. Masulis, Ronald W, 1980. "Stock Repurchase by Tender Offer: An Analysis of the Causes of Common Stock Price Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 305-319, May.
    10. William R. Nelson, 1999. "Evidence of excess returns on firms that issue or repurchase equity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William R. Nelson, 1999. "Evidence of excess returns on firms that issue or repurchase equity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. David J. Brophy & Paige P. Ouimet & Clemens Sialm, 2004. "PIPE Dreams? The Performance of Companies Issuing Equity Privately," NBER Working Papers 11011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bayless, Mark & Jay, Nancy R., 2001. "An examination of the performance of SEOs using a comparison period approach6," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 359-386.
    4. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 2006. "Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1605-1643, August.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Erica X. N. Li & Dmitry Livdan & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4301-4334, November.
    7. Firth, Michael & Leung, T.Y. & Rui, Oliver M., 2010. "Double signals or single signal? An investigation of insider trading around share repurchases," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 376-388, October.
    8. Raghavendra Rau, P. & Vermaelen, Theo, 1998. "Glamour, value and the post-acquisition performance of acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 223-253, August.
    9. Lipson, Marc L. & Mortal, Sandra & Schill, Michael J., 2011. "On the Scope and Drivers of the Asset Growth Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(6), pages 1651-1682, December.
    10. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    11. Chen, Xuanjuan & Kim, Kenneth A. & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2010. "On the predictability of Chinese stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-425, September.
    12. Michael C. Jensen, 1987. "The free cash flow theory of takeovers: a financial perspective on mergers and acquisitions and the economy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 31, pages 102-148.
    13. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    14. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Wang, Yanzhi, 2012. "Financial constraints and share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 311-331.
    15. Ball, Ray & Gerakos, Joseph & Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Nikolaev, Valeri, 2020. "Earnings, retained earnings, and book-to-market in the cross section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 231-254.
    16. Michael Hertzel & Michael Lemmon & James S. Linck & Lynn Rees, 2002. "Long‐Run Performance following Private Placements of Equity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2595-2617, December.
    17. Bayless, Mark & Jay, Nancy R., 2003. "Is the performance of firms following seasoned equity issues anomalous?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1273-1296, July.
    18. C. N. Bagley & D. K. Ghosh & U. Yaari, 1998. "Pecking order as a dynamic leverage theory," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 157-183.
    19. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    20. Unyong Pyo & Yong Shin & Howard Thompson, 2015. "Reducing agency conflicts with target debt ratios," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 431-453, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock - Prices; Stocks;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.