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A Financial New Keynesian Model

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Abstract

This paper solves a standard New Keynesian model in terms of risk-neutral expectations and estimates it using a cross-section of longer-dated financial assets at a single point in time. Inflation risk premia appear in the theory and cause inflation to deviate from its target on average. We re-estimate the model based on each day’s closing prices to capture high-frequency changes in the expected path of the economy. Our estimates show that financial markets reacted to the post-COVID surge in inflation with higher short-run inflation expectations, an increase in the inflation risk premium, and an increase in the long-run neutral real rate, 𝑟∗, while long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored. Our model produces long term inflation forecasts that outperform several standard alternative measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2023. "A Financial New Keynesian Model," Working Paper Series 2023-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:97341
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2023-35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1719-1753, June.
    3. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    4. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
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    Keywords

    Keynesian models; financial markets; covid19; inflation forecasts;
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