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Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

We assess the impact of news concerning the reforms associated with ?Abenomics? using an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. Our model explicitly accounts for the deflation protection enhancement embedded in Japanese inflation-indexed bonds issued since 2013, which pay their original nominal principal when deflation has occurred from issue to maturity. The value of this enhancement is sizable and time-varying, with substantive impacts on estimates of expected inflation compensation. After properly accounting for deflation protection, our results suggest that Japanese inflation risk premia were mostly negative during this period. Moreover, long-term inflation expectations remained positive throughout, despite extensive spells of realized deflation. Finally, initial market responses to policy changes associated with Abenomics and afterwards were not as inflationary as they appear under standard modeling procedures, implying that the program was less ?disappointing? than many perceive.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Mark M. Spiegel, 2019. "Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds," Working Paper Series 2019-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2019-15
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2019-15
    Note: The original version of this Working Paper was published May 7, 2019.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    2. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
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    Cited by:

    1. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japan; affine arbitrage-free term structure model; unconventional monetary policy; deflation; inflation expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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