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Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Cañas
  • Aparna Jayashankar
  • Emily Kerr
  • Diego Morales-Burnett

Abstract

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully track changes in Texas employment, gross domestic product and consumer price index. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes are also useful in predicting future changes in some of these regional economic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Cañas & Aparna Jayashankar & Emily Kerr & Diego Morales-Burnett, 2024. "Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy," Working Papers 2402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:98007
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2402
    Note: This paper is related to Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper 1416,"Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance."
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    manufacturing; surveys; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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