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Generational War on Inflation: Optimal Inflation Rates for the Young and the Old

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  • Ippei Fujiwara
  • Shunsuke Hori
  • Yuichiro Waki

Abstract

How does a grayer society affect the political decision-making regarding inflation rates? Is deflation preferred as a society ages? In order to answer these questions, we compute the optimal inflation rates for the young and the old respectively, and explore how they change with demographic factors, by using a New Keynesian model with overlapping generations. According to our simulation results, there indeed exists a tension between the young and the old on the optimal inflation rates, with the optimal inflation rates differing between generations. The rates can be significantly different from zero, particularly, when heterogeneous impacts from inflation via nominal asset holdings are considered. The optimal inflation rates for the old can be largely negative, reflecting their positive nominal asset holdings as well as lower effective discount factor. Societal aging may exert downward pressure on inflation rates through a politico-economic mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Ippei Fujiwara & Shunsuke Hori & Yuichiro Waki, 2019. "Generational War on Inflation: Optimal Inflation Rates for the Young and the Old," Globalization Institute Working Papers 372, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:372
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp372
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    Cited by:

    1. Paula C. A. M. de Albuquerque & Jorge Caiado & Andreia Pereira, 2020. "Population aging and inflation: evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 469-484, January.
    2. Donato Masciandaro & Francesco Passarelli, 2020. "Populism, Political Pressure and Central Bank (in)Dependence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 691-705, July.
    3. Waki, Yuichiro, 2022. "A cautionary note on linear aggregation in macroeconomic models under the RINCE preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal inflation rates; Societal aging; Heterogeneous agents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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