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Getting to Accuracy: Measuring COVID-19 by Mortality Rates and Percentage Changes

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  • Joel Elvery

Abstract

Comparing the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States to that of other countries can provide important insights into how the virus is progressing in the United States and the effectiveness of our response. The quality of those insights depends on the data we choose to compare and how we conduct that comparison. This report argues that cumulative mortality rates and their percentage changes are the best available measures for comparing the trajectory of the epidemic in different countries. Based on these measures, the epidemic in the United States has a similar mortality rate to those in Europe and is more deadly than in China and South Korea.

Suggested Citation

  • Joel Elvery, 2020. "Getting to Accuracy: Measuring COVID-19 by Mortality Rates and Percentage Changes," Cleveland Fed District Data Brief 20200408, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:c00003:87792
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20200408
    Note: (1) The author has updated this report as of April 13, 2020. See note below chart 1 for specifics.; (2) Since the District Data Brief was completed, additional evidence shows that COVID-19 deaths have been underreported, both in other countries and in the United States. The charts present the recent CSSE data, with no attempt to further correct for underreporting. See https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/cfed-district-data-briefs/cfddb-20200513-covid19-mortality-rate-trends-series.aspx.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Dietrich & Edward S. Knotek & Michael McMain & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2021. "Expected Post-Pandemic Consumption and Scarred Expectations from COVID-19," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(11), pages 1-8, April.
    2. Schellekens,Philip & Sourrouille,Diego M., 2020. "COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9260, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19;

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