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Educação e investimentos externos como determinantes do crescimento a longo prazo

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  • Marone, Guilherme
  • Issler, João Victor
  • Gonzaga, Gustavo Maurício

Abstract

Esse artigo usa uma metodologia de decomposição tendência-ciclo para estimar o produto potencial brasileiro e investigar a importância relativa dos choques permanentes e transitórios. Conclui-se que os primeiros explicam quase que 100% da variância do produto privado. A partir desta evidência, investiga-se a existência de relações de longo prazo entre o produto potencial e diversos possiveis determinantes do crescimento a longo prazo, como investimentos externos, escolaridade média e taxa de analfabetismo da população econolTÚcamente ativa. Conclui-se que as duas primeiras possuem uma relação de longo prazo com o produto potencial, e que a elasticidade de longo prazo é não desprezível. A luz desta evidência, discute-se questões de política econômica.

Suggested Citation

  • Marone, Guilherme & Issler, João Victor & Gonzaga, Gustavo Maurício, 1995. "Educação e investimentos externos como determinantes do crescimento a longo prazo," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 274, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    3. Durlauf, Steven N., 1993. "Time series properties of aggregate output fluctuations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 39-56, March.
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