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The ex-Ante non-optimality of the Dempster-Schafer updating rule for ambiguous beliefs

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  • Dow, James
  • Werlang, Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa

Abstract

The most widely used updating rule for non-additive probalities is the Dempster-Schafer rule. Schmeidles and Gilboa have developed a model of decision making under uncertainty based on non-additive probabilities, and in their paper 'Updating Ambiguos Beliefs' they justify the Dempster-Schafer rule based on a maximum likelihood procedure. This note shows in the context of Schmeidler-Gilboa preferences under uncertainty, that the Dempster-Schafer rule is in general not ex-ante optimal. This contrasts with Brown’s result that Bayes’ rule is ex-ante optimal for standard Savage preferences with additive probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Dow, James & Werlang, Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa, 1992. "The ex-Ante non-optimality of the Dempster-Schafer updating rule for ambiguous beliefs," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 185, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:185
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    Cited by:

    1. Werlang, Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa, 2000. "A notion of subgame perfect Nash equilibrium under knightian uncertainty," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 376, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

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