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Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

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  • Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
  • Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline
  • Mendonça, Diogo de Prince
  • Merlin, Giovanni Tondin
  • Simões, Oscar Rodrigues

Abstract

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.

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  • Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline & Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Merlin, Giovanni Tondin & Simões, Oscar Rodrigues, 2016. "Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression," Textos para discussão 416, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:416
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
    2. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    3. David F. Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Rationality, Markets and Morals, Frankfurt School Verlag, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, vol. 2(46), October.
    4. Alexander Chudik & Vanessa Smith, 2013. "The GVAR approach and the dominance of the U.S. economy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 136, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Ms. Yan M Sun & Mr. Frigyes F Heinz & Giang Ho, 2013. "Cross-Country Linkages in Europe: A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2013/194, International Monetary Fund.
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