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Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis

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  • Brito, Márcio Holland de

Abstract

The main goal of this article is to identify the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on output in Brazil from 1997 to 2014, and, more specifically, to estimate those effects when the output falls below its potential level. To do so, we estimate VAR (vector autoregressive) models to generate impulse-response functions and causality/endogeneity tests. Our most remarkable results indicate the following channel of economic policy in Brazil: to foster output, government spending increases causing increases in both tax rates and revenue and the short-term interest rate. A fiscal stimulus via spending seems efficient for economic performance as well as monetary policy; however, the latter operates pro-cyclically in the way we defined here, while the former is predominantly countercyclical. As the monetary shock had a negative effect on GDP growth and GDP growth responded positively to the fiscal shock, it seems that the economic policy has given poise to growth with one hand and taken it with the other one. The monetary policy is only reacting to the fiscal stimuli. We were not able to find any statistically significant response of the output to tax changes, but vice versa seems work in the Brazilian case.

Suggested Citation

  • Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2015. "Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis," Textos para discussão 407, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:407
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia de Furquim Werneck Moreira & Gilberto de Assis Libânio, 2018. "Macroeconomic policies after the 2008 financial crisis: lessons from brazilian and chinese experiences," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 585, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.

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