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Modelagem e previsão de volatilidade realizada: evidências para o Brasil

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  • Wink Junior, Marcos Vinício
  • Pereira, Pedro L. Valls

Abstract

Usando dados intradiários dos ativos mais negociados do BOVESPA, este trabalho considerou dois modelos recentemente desenvolvidos na literatura de estimação e previsão de volatilidade realizada. São eles; Heterogeneous Autorregressive Model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV), desenvolvido por Corsi (2009) e o Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS-RV), desenvolvido por Ghysels et al. (2004). Através de medidas de comparação de previsão dentro e fora da amostra, constatou-se resultados superiores do modelo MIDAS-RV apenas para previsões dentro da amostra. Para previsões fora da amostra, no entanto, não houve diferença estatisticamente significativa entre os modelos. Também encontram-se evidências que a utilização da volatilidade realizada induz distribuições dos retornos padronizados mais próximas da normal

Suggested Citation

  • Wink Junior, Marcos Vinício & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2012. "Modelagem e previsão de volatilidade realizada: evidências para o Brasil," Textos para discussão 313, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:313
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    Cited by:

    1. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & Francisco Eduardo de Luna e Almeida Santos, 2014. "Economic gains of realized volatility in the Brazilian stock market," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 12(3), pages 319-349.

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