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The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC)

  • Michela Catenacci

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Giulia Fiorese

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano)

  • Elena Verdolini

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC)

Abstract

In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Bosetti & Michela Catenacci & Giulia Fiorese & Elena Verdolini, 2012. "The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey," Working Papers 2012.01, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baker, Erin & Chon, Haewon & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2009. "Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 37-49.
    2. Carraro, Carlo & Bosetti, Valentina & Massetti, Emanuele & Tavoni, Massimo, 2007. "Optimal Energy Investment and R&D Strategies to Stabilise Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Concentrations," CEPR Discussion Papers 6549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bosetti, Valentina & Catenacci, Michela & Fiorese, Giulia & Verdolini, Elena, 2012. "The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 308-317.
    4. Elena Verdolini & Marzio Galeotti, 2009. "At Home and Abroad: An Empirical Analysis of Innovation and Diffusion in Energy-Efficient Technologies," Working Papers 2009.123, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Kobos, Peter H. & Erickson, Jon D. & Drennen, Thomas E., 2006. "Technological learning and renewable energy costs: implications for US renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1645-1658, September.
    6. Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & Massetti, Emanuele & Sgobbi, Alessandra & Tavoni, Massimo, 2009. "Optimal energy investment and R&D strategies to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 123-137, May.
    7. Michael Grubb, Carlo Carraro and John Schellnhuber, 2006. "Technological Change for Atmospheric Stabilization: Introductory Overview to the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-16.
    8. Trieb, Franz & Müller-Steinhagen, Hans & Kern, Jürgen, 2011. "Financing concentrating solar power in the Middle East and North Africa--Subsidy or investment?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 307-317, January.
    9. Baker, Erin & Keisler, Jeffrey M., 2011. "Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 595-605.
    10. Giovanni Peri, 2005. "Determinants of Knowledge Flows and Their Effect on Innovation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 308-322, May.
    11. Nemet, Gregory F., 2006. "Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3218-3232, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expert Elicitation; Research; Development and Demonstration; Solar Technologies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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