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Distribuição populacional e evolução do tamanho das cidades brasileiras: uma análise espacial do período 1920-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Lorena Trindade
  • Alexandre Sartoris

Abstract

Este artigo objetiva um exame mais detalhado da evolução da relação entre o tamanho das cidades brasileiras e sua distribuição populacional no período de 1920 a 2000. Para isso, utilizaremos dois tipos de métodos, um estático – que envolve um indicador de convergência baseado na Lei de Zipf – e outro dinâmico, que mostra, através de uma cadeia de Markov, movimentos nas posições relativas das cidades dentro da distribuição por tamanhos. Nas duas análises, verificamos uma persistente concentração populacional em um número pequeno de áreas. Os efeitos espaciais, considerados em ambas as análises, mostraram ter importante influência nos resultados obtidos.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorena Trindade & Alexandre Sartoris, 2009. "Distribuição populacional e evolução do tamanho das cidades brasileiras: uma análise espacial do período 1920-2000," Working Papers 09_11, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
    • Handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:09_11
    as

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    File URL: ftp://cpq.fearp.usp.br:2300/textos_discussao/eco/wpe09_11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vernon Henderson & Duncan Black, 1999. "Spatial Evolution of Population and Industry in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 321-327, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    convergência; distribuição populacional; autocorrelação espacial; SUR espacial; probabilidade de transição;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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