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New Evidence on the PBoC's Reaction Function

Author

Listed:
  • Makram El-Shagi

    (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, and School of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan)

  • Yishuo Ma

    (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, and School of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan)

Abstract

While policy reaction functions of most major central banks are routinely approximated by fitting Taylor (type) rules to their policy rate, there is no such consensus for the People's Bank of China (PBoC). What makes it hard to get a clear impression of the “true†reaction function is that most papers in the extensive literature focus on a single aspect of the reaction function typically mostly comparing it to one (or a few) widely used baseline models. Contrarily, we assess a broad range of questions regarding the reaction function in a unified approach, estimating several hundred reaction functions. While we find that no single policy measure fully captures all aspects of the PBoC's policy, our paper provides clear evidence for asymmetric behavior, support for an important role of monetary aggregates, and robust evidence for the PBoC considering both financial stability and exchange rate stabilization in its policy deliberations.

Suggested Citation

  • Makram El-Shagi & Yishuo Ma, 2024. "New Evidence on the PBoC's Reaction Function," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/5, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    • Handle: RePEc:fds:dpaper:202405
    as

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    File URL: http://cfds.henuecon.education/images/dpaper/WP_5_2024_pboc_mpr.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; monetary policy; reaction function; Taylor rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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