La difficile évaluation des Objectifs du Millénaire pour le Développement : Leçons pour les Objectifs du Développement Durable à partir du cas de la mortalité des enfants et de la mortalité maternelle en Afrique

The study aims at providing arguments for assessing the forthcoming Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s). It first presents a critical analysis of data and methods for evaluating achievements in Millennium Development Goals (MDG). It focuses on two mortality targets: (4a) under-five mortality and (5a) maternal mortality. The study is restricted to sub-Saharan African countries and deals with the 1985-2010 period. With respect to under-five mortality, the study shows the difficulties in interpreting heterogeneous data and methods, which can lead to different conclusions with respect to the slope of mortality trends. The study recommends focusing on homogeneous sources, and using all available annual data for evaluating mortality trends and achievements in MDG-4a. With respect to maternal mortality, the study focuses on two countries: Morocco and South Africa. It shows the difficulties of the evaluation due to a lack of rigorous and specific case definition, as well as to erratic data and calculations, which induce serious discrepancies in levels and trends, and therefore in the evaluation of MDG-5a. The statistical follow-up of SDG’s will therefore require more rigorous concepts and evaluation methods, as well as the routine collection of appropriate data.