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El Impacto Macroeconómico del Coronavirus

Author

Listed:
  • J.E. Boscá
  • R. Doménech
  • J. Ferri

Abstract

En esta nota se ofrece una primera estimación de urgencia del impacto económico de la pandemia de coronavirus en España y de algunas de las medidas que se están tomando para mitigar sus efectos utilizando el modelo EREMS. En un escenario base relativamente optimista en cuanto a la duración del confinamiento y la intensidad de sus efectos sobre la utilización de la capacidad productiva, se estima que la crisis sanitaria reducirá el crecimiento del PIB en 2020 en algo menos de seis puntos en relación a un escenario sin pandemia, lo que supondría una caída de este agregado de algo más de 4 puntos si no se tomasen medidas paliativas. La suspensión de la regla fiscal europea, el programa de compra de activos del BCE, la concesión de avales públicos y el resto de medidas anunciadas hasta el momento por el Gobierno pueden ayudar a mitigar significativamente la caída del PIB y del consumo y contribuir a una recuperación más rápida, aunque al coste de un importante aumento del déficit público.

Suggested Citation

  • J.E. Boscá & R. Doménech & J. Ferri, 2020. "El Impacto Macroeconómico del Coronavirus," Fedea Economy Notes 2020-02, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdafen:2020-02
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    Cited by:

    1. González Laxe, Fernando & Armesto Pina, José Francisco & Lago-Peñas, Santiago & Sanchez-Fernandez, Patricio, 2020. "Impacto económico del COVID19 en una economía regional. El caso del confinamiento para Galicia [Economic impact of COVID19 in a regional economy. The case of the lock-down in Galicia]," MPRA Paper 100002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cristina Elena CAZACU & Teodora Valentina LICÄ‚ & Cristina Gabriela COSMULESE, 2022. "Pandemic In Romania €“ Financial And Taxation Measures Taken During The Covid-19 Crisis And Their Effects On The Romanian Public Economy," European Journal of Accounting, Finance & Business, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania - Faculty of Economics and Public Administration, West University of Timisoara, Romania - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 10(3), pages 41-52, October.
    3. Costa Junior, Celso J. & Garcia-Cintado, Alejandro C. & Junior, Karlo Marques, 2021. "Macroeconomic policies and the pandemic-driven recession," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-465.
    4. Celso José Costa Jr & Alejandro Garcia-Cintado & Karlo Marques, 2020. "Conventional macroeconomic policies and the pandemic-driven recession," Working Papers 20.03, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.

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