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Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis

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  • Josef Simpart

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

In the face of wars and a geopolitically challenging environment, military expenditures have once again become political focal points in developed countries. However, the scientific literature remains inconclusive regarding their impact on economic growth. This paper conducts a meticulous meta-analysis, examining 405 estimates from 67 studies and incorporating over 30 variables to account for variations in their characteristics. The meta-analysis reveals a consistently negative average effect of military expenditures on economic growth, coupled with an absence or mild presence of publication bias. Both Bayesian and Frequentist model averaging highlight the diversity among individual estimates, attributing this variation to the data characteristics of individual studies. Notably, factors such as the panel structure, number of observations, number of countries, and time span emerge as crucial contributors to this diversity. The pivotal influence of data originating from the 1990s suggests the significance of de-escalation periods and hints at potential non-linearities within the observed effects. This paper makes notable contributions to prior meta-analyses by adopting an updated dataset, a more robust approach to publication bias analysis, and providing a more refined solution to addressing model uncertainty in the heterogeneity analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Simpart, 2024. "Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2024/8, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_08
    as

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    File URL: https://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/en/military-expenditure-and-economic-growth-meta-analysis
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    meta-analysis; publication bias; model averaging; military expenditure; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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