IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ewp/wpaper/451web.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural transformation in India: The Role of the Service Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Serrano-Quintero

    (Universitat de Barcelona, BEAT and CREB)

Abstract

Contrary to the experience of industrialized countries, productivity growth of Indian services has been consistently faster than manufacturing. In this paper, I document that (i) the fastest growing industries in services grow faster than in manufacturing; (ii) faster productivity growth in services than in manufacturing is not because of sluggish manufacturing productivity; (iii) the supply of skilled workers in India is skewed towards tertiary education and (iv) the service sector is the most skill intensive; (v) returns to schooling are larger for the high-productivity services. To quantify and rationalize these facts, I construct a multi-sector model of estructural change with high and low-skilled workers. The calibrated model suggests that the large supply of high-skill workers combined with higher skill intensity in the service sector seem to be behind the services take-off. The data imply that service sub-sectors are gross substitutes while manufacturing sub-sectors are gross complements. This will accelerate productivity growth in services and decelerate productivity growth in manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Serrano-Quintero, 2023. "Structural transformation in India: The Role of the Service Sector," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2023/451, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ewp:wpaper:451web
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/202190
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bridgman, Benjamin & Duernecker, Georg & Herrendorf, Berthold, 2018. "Structural transformation, marketization, and household production around the world," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 102-126.
    2. Restuccia, Diego & Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2008. "Agriculture and aggregate productivity: A quantitative cross-country analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 234-250, March.
    3. Roy, Tirthankar, 2011. "Economic History of India, 1857-1947," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780198074175.
    4. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    5. Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Evolving comparative advantage, sectoral linkages, and structural change," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 75-87.
    6. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 193-228, September.
    7. repec:fth:stanho:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Robert Jensen, 2012. "Do Labor Market Opportunities Affect Young Women's Work and Family Decisions? Experimental Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 753-792.
    9. Nicolas Ziebarth, 2013. "Are China and India Backwards? Evidence from the 19th Century U.S. Census of Manufactures," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 86-99, January.
    10. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    11. Paula Bustos & Juan Manuel Castro Vincenzi & Joan Monras & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2019. "Structural Transformation, Industrial Specialization, and Endogenous Growth," Working Papers wp2019_1906, CEMFI.
    12. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bold, Tessa & Barton, Nicholas & Sandefur, Justin, 2017. "Measuring Rents from Public Employment: Regression discontinuity evidence from Kenya," CEPR Discussion Papers 12105, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Tianyu Fan & Michael Peters & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2021. "Growing Like India: The Unequal Effects of Service-Led Growth," NBER Working Papers 28551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Verma, Rubina, 2012. "Can total factor productivity explain value added growth in services?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 163-177.
    16. Nicholas Barton & Tessa Bold & Justin Sandefur, 2017. "Measuring Rents from Public Employment: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Kenya - Working Paper 457," Working Papers 457, Center for Global Development.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    2. Tasso Adamopoulos & Fernando Leibovici, 2024. "Trade Risk and Food Security," Working Papers 2024-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Gangopadhyay, Kausik & Mondal, Debasis, 2021. "Productivity, relative sectoral prices, and total factor productivity: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Seung Mo Choi & Hwagyun Kim & Xiaohan Ma, 2021. "Trade policies and growth in emerging economies: policy experiments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 603-629, August.
    5. Cai, Wenbiao, 2015. "Structural change accounting with labor market distortions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 54-64.
    6. Dorinet, Elizavetta & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2021. "Is the agricultural sector cursed too? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Barker, Tom & Üngör, Murat, 2019. "Vietnam: The next asian Tiger?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-118.
    8. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, 2018. "Globalization and Structural Change in the United States: A Quantitative Assessment," 2018 Meeting Papers 1027, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Diego Comin & Danial Lashkari & Martí Mestieri, 2021. "Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 311-374, January.
    10. Ippei Fujiwara & Kiminori Matsuyama, 2024. "A Technology-Gap Model of 'Premature' Deindustrialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(11), pages 3714-3745, November.
    11. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    12. Eberhardt, Markus & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2018. "The Effect of Agricultural Technology on the Speed of Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 483-496.
    13. Chudgar, Amita & Sakamoto, Jutaro, 2021. "Similar work, different pay? Private school teacher working conditions in India," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. Ho, Chi Pui, 2015. "Population growth and structural transformation," MPRA Paper 68014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tomasz Swiecki, 2017. "Determinants of Structural Change," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 95-131, March.
    16. Chi Pui Ho, 2024. "Towards a More Complete Theory of Structural Transformation," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 25(1), pages 289-326, May.
    17. Saha, Anuradha, 2023. "Land and housing: The twin forces of non-balanced growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Teignier, Marc, 2018. "The role of trade in structural transformation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 45-65.
    19. Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "The dual economy in long-run development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 287-312, December.
    20. Till F. Hollstein & Kristian Estévez, 2017. "Industrial Policy and the Timing of Trade Liberalization," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2017/361, University of Barcelona School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural transformation; Productivity; Human Capital; India.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ewp:wpaper:451web. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: University of Barcelona School of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feubaes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.