IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eve/wpaper/15-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk Factors, Copula Dependence and Risk Sensitivity of a Large Portfolio

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Bruneau

    (University Paris I Pantheon-Sorbonne and CES)

  • Alexis Flageollet

    (Natixis Asset Management)

  • Zhun Peng

    (University of Evry and EPEE)

Abstract

In this paper we propose a flexible tool to estimate the risk sensitivity of a high- dimensional portfolio composed of different classes of assets, especially in extreme risk circumstances. We build a so-called Cvine Risk Factors Model (CRFM), which is a non-linear version of a risk factor model in a copula framework. Our tool allows us to decompose the risk of any asset and any portfolio into specific risk directions depending on the context. As an application, we compare the sensitivity of different types of portfolios to extreme risks. We also give an example of a view- type analysis as usually performed by portfolio managers who examine what their portfolio becomes under specific circumstances: here we examine the case of a low inflation context. These analyses allow us to detect changes in the diversification opportunities over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Bruneau & Alexis Flageollet & Zhun Peng, 2015. "Risk Factors, Copula Dependence and Risk Sensitivity of a Large Portfolio," Documents de recherche 15-03, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:eve:wpaper:15-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.univ-evry.fr/fileadmin/mediatheque/ueve-institutionnel/03_Recherche/laboratoires/Epee/wp/15-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    2. Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Value-at-risk for long and short trading positions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 641-663.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4688 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kurowicka, D. & Cooke, R.M., 2007. "Sampling algorithms for generating joint uniform distributions using the vine-copula method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 2889-2906, March.
    5. Brechmann, Eike Christian & Schepsmeier, Ulf, 2013. "Modeling Dependence with C- and D-Vine Copulas: The R Package CDVine," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 52(i03).
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    9. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    10. Gregor Weiß, 2013. "Copula-GARCH versus dynamic conditional correlation: an empirical study on VaR and ES forecasting accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 179-202, August.
    11. Brechmann, Eike C. & Hendrich, Katharina & Czado, Claudia, 2013. "Conditional copula simulation for systemic risk stress testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 722-732.
    12. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. HEINEN, Andréas & VALDESOGO, Alfonso, 2009. "Asymmetric CAPM dependence for large dimensions: the Canonical Vine Autoregressive Model," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2009069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    15. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Arnould & Catherine Bruneau & Zhun Peng, 2015. "Liquidity and Equity Short term fragility: Stress-tests for the European banking system," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15090, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Ramzi Benkraiem & Riadh Garfatta & Faten Lakhal & Imen Zorgati, 2022. "Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach," Post-Print hal-03638322, HAL.
    3. Zhun Peng, 2015. "Sensitivity of Pension Fund's Balance Sheet: a non-linear risk factor approach," Documents de recherche 15-06, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    4. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Garfatta, Riadh & Lakhal, Faten & Zorgati, Imen, 2022. "Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Catherine Bruneau & Alexis Flageollet & Zhun Peng, 2020. "Economic and financial risk factors, copula dependence and risk sensitivity of large multi-asset class portfolios," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 284(1), pages 165-197, January.
    2. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Macro-Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 945-985.
    3. Simlai, Prodosh E., 2016. "Time-varying risk, mispricing attributes, and the accrual premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 150-161.
    4. Rojo Suárez, Javier & Alonso Conde, Ana Belén & Ferrero Pozo, Ricardo, 2020. "European equity markets: Who is the truly representative investor?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 325-346.
    5. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2011. "Treasury Bond risk and return, the implications for the hedging of consumption and lessons for asset pricing," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 582-604.
    6. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
    7. Jaewon Choi & Matthew P. Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2014. "On the Fundamental Relation Between Equity Returns and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 20187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Guillaume Arnould & Catherine Bruneau & Zhun Peng, 2015. "Liquidity and Equity Short term fragility: Stress-tests for the European banking system," Post-Print halshs-01254729, HAL.
    9. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    10. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
    11. Bekiros, Stelios & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Multivariate dependence risk and portfolio optimization: An application to mining stock portfolios," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 1-11.
    12. Stein, Tobias, 2024. "Forecasting the equity premium with frequency-decomposed technical indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 6-28.
    13. Kjersti Aas, 2016. "Pair-Copula Constructions for Financial Applications: A Review," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Gonçalves, Andrei S., 2021. "The short duration premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 919-945.
    15. Hammami, Yacine & Lindahl, Anna, 2013. "Estimating and testing beta pricing models on industries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 45-63.
    16. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q III), pages 36-58.
    17. Blasques, F. & Francq, Christian & Laurent, Sébastien, 2024. "Autoregressive conditional betas," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    18. Souza, Thiago de Oliveira, 2020. "Dollar carry timing," Discussion Papers on Economics 10/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    19. Turan G. Bali & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Risk, uncertainty, and expected returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Robert F. Whitelaw, 1997. "Time-Varying Sharpe Ratios and Market Timing," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-074, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regular vine copula; Factorial model; Extreme Risks; Risk Management; Portfolio Management; Diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eve:wpaper:15-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Samuel Nosel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epevrfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.