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The cyclically-adjusted budget balance used in the EU fiscal framework: an update

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Mourre
  • George-Marian Isbasoiu
  • Dario Paternoster
  • Matteo Salto

Abstract

The cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CAB) is the backbone of the EU framework of fiscal surveillance, both in its preventive and corrective arms. The concept corresponds to the budget balance prevailing if the economy was running at potential. After correcting for the one-off and temporary measures, it is called structural budget balance and used to assess the fiscal policy stance. The importance of the CAB has been restated forcefully with the recent reform of the European economic governance. This paper aims at methodologically improving the CAB to better measure the reaction of the balance-to-GDP ratio to cyclical conditions. This was achieved by using a more precise concept of the cyclical-adjustment parameter and by updating the decade-old fiscal elasticities underlying the computation of the CAB. This paper reviews and explains in detail these recent improvements and describes the impact thereof on the CAB results.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Mourre & George-Marian Isbasoiu & Dario Paternoster & Matteo Salto, 2013. "The cyclically-adjusted budget balance used in the EU fiscal framework: an update," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 478, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0478
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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