IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/euf/ecopap/0140.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Disentangling trend and cycle in the EUR-11 unemployment series

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrice Orlandi
  • Karl Pichelmann

Abstract

A variety of statistical methods and econometric techniques can be used attempting to disentangle the non-cyclical trend component of a time series and its purely cyclical part. This paper serves the purpose to demonstrate the potential contribution from the use of unobserved components modelling techniques to decompose the EUR-11 unemployment series. In general, unobserved components models appear to be an attractive and quite flexible tool to discriminate between the cyclical and the trend component in unemployment; in particular, the multivariate version of the model allows to use information contained in the price series to assist the decomposition of the unemployment rate. Consequently, this specification is potentially closer to the NAIRU concept than univariate filtering techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrice Orlandi & Karl Pichelmann, 2000. "Disentangling trend and cycle in the EUR-11 unemployment series," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 140, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication11142_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
    2. Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.
    3. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027422, HAL.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert, 2008. "Unemployment Persistence And The Nairu: A Bayesian Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 281-299, July.
    7. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie, 2010. "Labour taxes and unemployment evidence from a panel unobserved component model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 354-364, March.
    8. T. Berger & G. Everaert, 2006. "Re-examining the Structural and the Persistence Approach to Unemployment," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/383, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ECFIN INFO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dg2ecbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.