Recent Developments in Dutch Exports to Germany

GDP growth correlations and different recovery paths from recent economic shocks suggest a divergence in economic outcomes in the Netherlands and Germany in the past decade. While there may be several possible explanations, this brief investigates recent developments in Dutch exports to Germany and differences in the export structure (economic activity and geographical diversification) of the two countries. The brief mainly looks at these issues from the perspective of the Netherlands, aiming to assess the dependence of the Dutch economy on Germany as an export market. The brief notes that the value of Dutch goods exports to Germany as a share of Dutch GDP has been increasing since 2000, which is in line with the increase in Dutch goods exports to the rest of the world as a share of GDP. However, Dutch trade with Germany is lower than predicted by a gravity model of trade based on the size of the German economy and its close geographical location. In addition, we observe that re-exports are outgrowing exports of domestically produced goods to Germany and, since 2012, account for more than half of total exports to Germany. Due to the value added per euro of re-exports being much lower than that of domestically produced goods, the value added of all Dutch goods exports to Germany as a share of GDP has been on a slightly decreasing path since 2012. We also find that Dutch exports are less concentrated in specific industries than those from Germany and the Netherlands has increased the geographical diversification of its exports significantly.