The G20@15: Can It Still Deliver?

The current brief revisits G20 developments in the last ten years. A particular focus is put on the G20 response to the pandemic, which for a short period relaunched the centrality of the G20 on the global scene. We then analyse the consequences of growing geopolitical tensions and the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine on the effectiveness of the G20, both in terms of messaging and deliverables. Finally, we discuss possible ways forward that would allow the forum to still play an important role at global level and continue to deliver much needed global public goods. Our analysis shows that the G20 has continued to deliver, especially in periods of global crises. However, currently the G20 is at a crossroads. In an adverse scenario, where a bloc logic between different parts of the global economy would prevail and economic decoupling and fragmentation would spread, the role of the G20 on the international scene could rapidly decline. There would still be the hope that in such an unfavourable environment, G20 economies would be able to insulate global challenges and be able to deliver remedies to them. In a gradually improving, more positive scenario where Advanced and Emerging Market Economies try to find new common grounds on crucial challenges, and essential global public goods, the G20 could continue to play a central role in global economic governance. Known unknowns that will materialise in the middle of this decade will determine which path it will take and define if and what it can still deliver.