A Study on Financial Verification and Public Pension Finance in 2019―Evaluation of the TFP Growth Rate, an Economic Assumption (Japanese)

In this paper, we build a simple probabilistic model using data on the total-factor productivity (TFP) growth rate over the past 30 years, and then, using the Monte Carlo simulation method, estimate the probability of realization of the TFP increase rate that is assumed in each case of financial verification in 2019 and consider the economic assumptions and pension finance issues related to financial verification. First, verification of financial materials up to 2014 revealed no information about which scenario had a high probability of validity and which scenario had a low probability of validity. However, in verification of financial materials for 2019, the frequency distribution based on past data was inserted into the reference materials for the important parameters (e.g. TFP growth rate) that are at the core of financial verification, and the materials clarified the position and the coverage rate of each scenario's assumptions in the frequency distribution. This attempt should be evaluated, but the coverage rate does not match the probability of realization of the rate of increase in TFP derived from an assumption in financial verification. This suggests the importance of assessing the rate of increase in TFP, which is a prerequisite for financial verification, using a Stochastic model.