Entry and Exit of Large-Scale Retail Stores and Revitalization of City Center Districts (Japanese)

In this paper, we conduct a quantitative analysis of the impact of the entry/exit of large-scale stores and the existence of community facilities on the sales of small- and medium-sized retail stores, using the METI Census of Commerce (Wholesale and Retail Trades) and other mesh data. From this we find that the entry (exit) of large stores has a positive (negative) impact on the invigoration of commerce in the areas concerned. However, this effect is significantly dependent upon the entry/exit of small- and medium-sized retail stores that accompanies the entry/exit of the large-scale retail stores, and the impact on the ratio of change in the sales of small- and medium-sized retail stores (existing stores) operating since 1997 or earlier years has been limited. In addition, by taking and analyzing separate samples in cities in which private cars are widely used as a household's primary mode of transportation and those in which they are not, we found that in cities in which the average number of cars per household is low, the entry of large-scale stores had a positive impact on the degree to which the sales of existing stores changed, though that impact was not observed in cities in which that indicator is high. Similarly, there was a positive correlation between the existence of community facilities and the degree to which the sales of all stores changed, though when the analysis was limited to existing stores, we found that, whereas in cities in which the average number of cars per household is low there was a positive correlation between the existence of community facilities and the degree of change in sales, in cities in which that average number is high, the correlation was weak. These results show that in regions in which car ownership is more widespread, even if new large-scale stores open and community facilities are established in city center districts, given the traffic congestion and lack of parking spaces in city centers, it would be very difficult to envisage a return to those areas by customers who have moved out to the suburbs. A variety of measures to revitalize city-center districts are currently being studied, but the results of our analysis show that it is essential to devise measures that are tailored to match each individual urban environment.