Unpacking China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy: Patterns, drivers, and implications

In recent years, China’s diplomatic rhetoric has notably taken on a more confrontational tone. The most prominent and contentious manifestation of this shift is Wolf Warrior Diplomacy (WWD). Using textual data from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) press conferences, this study examines the trajectory of WWD, analyzing its fluctuations, the underlying factors influencing the timeline, and its distinctiveness within the broader context of China’s diplomatic assertiveness. Quantitative analysis reveals a significant shift toward a more negative tone starting in July 2019, followed by a slightly more moderate tone after September 2022. The findings suggest that increased intervention by the Chinese Communist Party in MFA affairs is likely to be the primary driver behind WWD, rather than nationalism or geopolitical tensions. Further analysis identifies terms such as ‘responsibility for a crime,’ ‘discredit,’ or ‘ideology’ as key indicators of WWD fluctuation. This study contributes to understanding the domestic sources of Chinese foreign policy behaviors and the changing nature of Chinese diplomatic discourse under President Xi Jinping.