Cohort Catch-Up: Exploring Trends in Student Achievement Post-Pandemic in Flanders, Belgium

This paper takes stock of the long-term evolution of the trend in student achievement in the final year of primary education in Flanders, Belgium. Using panel data with standardised test scores, we assess the average change in students’ test scores between-cohorts, by comparing most recent cohorts with either the pre-pandemic levels (the year 2019), or the year 2021. We show that while the 2023 cohort underperform compared to pre-pandemic levels (-0.27 SD in ‘reading comprehension’, -0.18 SD in ‘geometry’, -0.12 SD in ‘technology’, and -0.17 SD in ‘social science – time’), a catch-up in learning between-cohorts takes place, with the 2023 cohort catching up with the 2021 cohort, regardless of the base year. Furthermore, we find that high-performing students (p75-p95), who had previously experienced an especially pronounced negative trend in test scores in 2022, now perform at levels observed in previous years. Furthermore, we observe an improvement in test scores across all schools, irrespective of their SES composition, in all subjects and content subdomains, except for listening. The trend analysis of specific content subdomains within multiple subjects, which is lacking in the literature, provide a nuanced understanding of the dynamics at play, offering valuable insights for education systems beyond that of Flanders.