A Quantitative Analysis of Genocide in Kibuye Prefecture, Rwanda

This paper is a quantitative study of the genocide in the prefecture of Kibuye in Rwanda in 1994. We use an original data base developed by the organisation of the survivors of the genocide (IBUKA) who collected the data by house-to-house fieldwork. The data contain information on the age, sex, commune of residence before the genocide, the professional occupation of the victims, the place and date of death and the weapon used to kill, for a total of 59.050 victims of genocide. For one commune (Mabanza), we re-coded the data, present detailed statistics and perform an analysis of survival chances. From the analysis, we derive that Tutsi from the sectors of Mabanza commune whose Tutsi population did not (or only in limited numbers) go to the Gatwaro Stadium had a better chance to survive the genocide in Kibuye. For the whole of the prefecture, we present an estimation of the daily killing rate, estimations of the number of Tutsi killed in the major massacres and the weapons used. For over 25.000 victims for which the data file has complete information, we present a logistical regression explaining the use of either a traditional weapon or a fire-arm. The analysis shows that the probability to be killed with a fire-arm depended on the commune of residence of the victim, the age of the victim, the number of days after April 6 the victim was killed and on interaction effects between the latter two variables and the sex of the victim.