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An Affine Model for International Bond Markets

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  • Hans DEWACHTER
  • Konstantijn MAES

Abstract

We present and estimate a parsimonious multi-factor affine term structure model for joint bond markets. We extend the standard affine models by focusing on joint markets and by incorporating the exchange rate dynamics in the estimation procedure. Estimation is done by means of a Kalman filter algorithm. We find that our particular three factor model is quite successful in fitting bond correlations, both within and between national bond markets. Moreover, the model sheds light on some of the most persistent puzzles in empirical finance. Finally, we apply the model to test for international diversification gains in unhedged bond portfolios, conditional on the information that is present in the term structures of both countries. We find that exchange rate risk is sufficiently priced such that the inclusion of foreign bonds allows for an improved risk-return trade-off from the perspective of a domestic investor.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans DEWACHTER & Konstantijn MAES, 2001. "An Affine Model for International Bond Markets," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces0106, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    • Handle: RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces0106
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    Cited by:

    1. Mats Hansson & Eva Liljeblom & Anders Loflund, 2009. "International bond diversification strategies: the impact of currency, country, and credit risk," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5-6), pages 555-583.
    2. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    3. Vilimir Yordanov, 2012. "The Bulgarian Foreign and Domestic Debt ??? A No-Arbitrage Macrofinancial View," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1032, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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