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Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap

Author

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  • Sutirtha Roy
  • Martin Kessler
  • Arvind Subramanian

Abstract

This paper suggests a reinterpretation of global growth—encompassing notions of unconditional convergence and the middle income trap—in the past 50 years through the lens of growth theory. Two modes of convergence are studied: a classic “Solow†model where poorer countries catch up by growing faster on average; and a new “Wilde†model where catch-up growth is interpreted as growing faster than the frontier country, the United States. These modes to both countries and people as units of analysis. There is a convergence has occurred faster and began earlier than widely believed [Working Paper 438].

Suggested Citation

  • Sutirtha Roy & Martin Kessler & Arvind Subramanian, 2016. "Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap," Working Papers id:11404, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:11404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Patel, Dev & Sandefur, Justin & Subramanian, Arvind, 2021. "The new era of unconditional convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "In Defence of the Endogenous Growth Theory: "Conditional" and "Unconditional" Convergence in Two-Country AK Models," MPRA Paper 115092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Michael Kremer & Jack Willis & Yang You, 2021. "Converging to Convergence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36, pages 337-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lekha Chakraborty & Pinaki Chakraborty, 2018. "Federalism, fiscal asymmetries and economic convergence: evidence from Indian States," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 83-113, April.
    6. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac & Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "Migration, technology diffusion and convergence in a two-country AK Growth Model," MPRA Paper 115340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Andersson, Martin & Palacio, Andrés & von Borries, Alvaro, 2022. "Why has economic shrinking receded in Latin America? A social capability approach," Lund Papers in Economic History 236, Lund University, Department of Economic History.

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