IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esj/esridp/227.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Different Are Non-specialists' Forecasts from Specialist'?(in Japanese)

Author

Listed:
  • IIDUKA Nobuo
  • KAWAGOE Masaaki

Abstract

This paper conducts a survey asking economists, but not specialists of forecasting, to submit their forecasts of real GDP growth and CPI inflation rates for 2007Q4, 2008Q1 and FY 2009, and compares the responses with the corresponding results of the ESP forecasts, a monthly survey of professional forecasters. The specialists turn out to be superior to the non-specialists in foresting for very short time period, especially predicting changes due to time specific factors. The non-specialists seem to tend to extrapolate recently available data, but their heterogeneous information sets are likely to make their forecasts scatter wider apart than specialists'. This may imply a possibility that the heterogeneous information held by non-specialists could improve accuracy of the consensus forecasts calculated from specialists' forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • IIDUKA Nobuo & KAWAGOE Masaaki, 2009. "How Different Are Non-specialists' Forecasts from Specialist'?(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 227, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/e_dis/e_dis227/e_dis227.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. KOMINE Takao & BAN Kanemi & KAWAGOE Masaaki & YOSHIDA Hiroshi, 2009. "What Have We Learned from a Survey of Japanese Professional Forecasters? Taking Stock of Four Years of ESP Forecast Experience," ESRI Discussion paper series 214, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HORI nobuko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esrgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.