What are the Economic Losses Caused by Catastrophic Disaster?(in Japanese)

The estimations of economic losses caused by disasters are vital to tackle the national problem of alleviating the damage. The losses have been estimated by various entities such as governments, researchers, and think tanks. The estimated losses, however, vary by definitions, periods, and areas, i.e., time and space ranges. This paper is a survey of the estimated amounts and estimation methods of three catastrophes: the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, the September 11 terrorist attacks, and Hurricane Katrina. To facilitate the comparison, the losses are classified into direct or indirect losses. The difference in definition is that time and space ranges and evaluation methods are also earmarked. The estimations of direct economic losses immediately after the catastrophes have not been so different: the range of local government and replacement costs are commonly adopted. This is because these estimations are used as benchmarks for the recovery budget or for insurance payments. In contrast, the indirect economic losses such as economic slowdown vary by estimation even for the same catastrophe: they vary by time, special range, and estimation methods. Technical difficulties and the vagueness of estimation purposes are inherent. Sufficient attention should be paid for the indirect losses to evaluate the cost and benefits of the mitigation or recovery investment. Due to limited data availability, no single standard for estimation should be pursued. It is important to continue to accumulate data and to improve our estimation methods.