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The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship and its Historical Changes(in Japanese)

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  • MAEDA Akira

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of high oil prices on various national economies. Using an analytical model, I show that oil price-real GDP/nominal price elasticities can be estimated roughly from current oil prices, GDP, and oil imports and exports. In contrast to large-scale modeling, my approach is based on simple algebra and clear assumptions, and thus provides policy makers with a more transparent view of the vulnerability of economies to oil price increases, in terms of both GDP and domestic price levels; my model shows how this vulnerability declined sharply in the late-1980s and stayed low through the 1990s, and how the Euro-zone countries are becoming more vulnerable while Japan remains less so.

Suggested Citation

  • MAEDA Akira, 2005. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship and its Historical Changes(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 142, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:142
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    File URL: http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/e_dis/e_dis142/e_dis142a.pdf
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