Distributor's margins and GDP(in Japanese)

Depreciation width of the GDP deflator has expanded, influence of distribution sector is pointed out as a background of enlargement in depreciation width after 1999. This paper analyzes 1) effects of the fluctuations in distributor's margin ratio on GDP deflator and real GDP, and discusses the relationship of such fluctuations 2) with change of circulation structure after second half of the '90s and 3) with estimation method of National accounts. Concerning distributor's margin ratio, quantitatively the ratio decreased as a whole economy in '98-2000, and quantitatively the ratio rose in final demand section and decreased in intermediate demand in 2000-02. The quantitative change in distributor's margin ratio after 99, brought the asymmetric movement of the distributor's margin deflator in intermediate demand and final demand section, and became the primary factor for enlargement in depreciation width of the GDP deflator. The quantitative increase of distributor's margin in final demand also had an effect to raise real GDP. Distributor's margin ratio will not change widely in short-term. This paper analyzed the changes in circulation structure, that is, the widening and deepening of price destruction and the rapid enlargement of E- commerce, and argued that 1) These changes in circulation structure may explain the movements of distributor's margin in final demand section but cannot explain its movements in intermediate demand section after 2000 where it rose in nominal term but it fell in real term. It also argued that 2) Vertical integration of wholesales reduced distribution channel, which may affect the margin ratio for National accounts and the Input- Output- Table, unless adjustment of enterprise's margin ratio assembled in base statistics to item's margin ratio is done appropriately, Concerning the estimation method of National accounts, this paper firstly argued that quantitative change of distributor's margin relates to both Commodity- flow method to estimate expenditures and Deflator- estimation method. Namely, distributor's margin ratio is estimated with Commodity- flow method. On the other hand, distributor's margin is difference of producer's price and purchaser's price. These prices are estimated with Deflator- estimation method. Quantitative change of distributor's margin is the change which it occurs from changes in relationship between nominal distributor's margin ratio and relative price. From viewpoint of estimation method of National accounts, it has occurred from the contact point of such Commodity- flow method and Deflator- estimation method. Then it analyzed the movements of nominal distributor's margin ratio and relative price by components of demand and found that movements of nominal distributor's margin ratio are similar, while the movements of relative price differ. And it argued that 1) allocation of distributor's margin to demands- and- commodities items is not function properly reflecting insufficient base statistics to estimate it for intermediate year. It also argued that 2) the intermediate demand deflator moves reflecting the movements of (Production minus final demand) deflators. On the basis of above, this paper conclude that recognition of close relationship between distributor's margin ratio and the deflator is necessary and suggests 1) relative price should be referred for estimating the distributor's margin ratio while it becomes difficult under the change of circulation structure, and 2) margin ratio should be referred for estimating the intermediate demand deflator whose base statistics are weak. It is also useful to show the growth of GDP where quantitative margin ratio unchanged.