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Population ageing policy reforms and endogenous growth in Japan: a computable overlapping generations approach

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  • SHIMASAWA Manabu

Abstract

We have developed a multi-period computable endogenous growth overlapping generations model generated by the accumulation of human capital. To study whether ageing itself and policy reform that aims to cope with aging make any quantitative impact through human capital formation on the Japanese economy, we simulate two policy change scenarios and compare the results of those with endogenous growth to those with exogenous growth. Three main results are obtained: (1) the human capital investment is important to assure sustained positive economic growth; (2) policy changes, pension reform, and fiscal consolidation promote human capital accumulation and thus boost economic growth; and (3) the traditional exogenous growth OLG model underestimates the effect of policy reform, comparing the endogenous growth of the OLG model. The robustness of these results is guaranteed from the sensitivity tests. JEL classification : C62; C63; C68; E27; E66; J11; J24; O41; O53;

Suggested Citation

  • SHIMASAWA Manabu, 2004. "Population ageing policy reforms and endogenous growth in Japan: a computable overlapping generations approach," ESRI Discussion paper series 096, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:096
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & De la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic, 2002. "Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2093-2113, October.
    3. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    4. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    5. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2002. "Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 462-491, December.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overlapping generations; human capital; endogenous growth; population ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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