Fiscal reforms and National Burden in Japan: A Simulation Analysis of Future Fiscal Conditions and Generational Public Benefits and Burdens(in Japanese)

Considering the huge amount of debt, the Japanese government can no longer delay any fiscal reforms. Moreover, in order to cope with aging society, the Japanese government should carry out fundamental reforms in social security systems. So it is required to reveal how much reforms would improve future fiscal conditions and affect benefits and burdens of household. Based on these backgrounds this paper analyzes the effects of social security and fiscal reforms on the government fiscal conditions and household. In the analysis of household, we focuses on changes of generational lifetime public benefits and burdens, which have been already quite different among generations. The reforms considered in this paper are tree kinds of reforms: a fiscal reform which cuts government expenditure except social security, a pension reform which keeps social security premium less than 20%, and a medical reform which reduces medical expenditure. The simulation results tell us that social security reforms and fiscal reforms would be effective to improve the government finance. Especially among the reforms considered in this paper it is a fiscal reform that is the most effective. However, considering lifetime public benefits and burdens of household, the simulation results show clearly that none of the reforms would improve the generational gaps of public benefits and burdens.