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The Cyclical Dynamics of Industries in West Germany- Testing the Industry Life Cycle Hypothesis

Author

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  • Thomas Brenner

    (Philipps-University of Marburg, Economic Geography, Deutschhausstrasse 10, 35032 Marburg/Lahn, Germany)

  • Matthias Dorner

    (Max-Planch-Institute for Innovation and Competition (MPI-IP), Innovation and Entrepreneurship Research Group, Marstallplatz 1, 80539 Munich, Germany; Institut for Employment Research (IAB), GradAB, Regensburger Strasse 100, 90478 Nuremberg,Germany)

Abstract

We test the industry life cycle hypothesis for 205 industries in West Germany between 1976 and 2009. In particular we analyse whether population indicators follow a cyclical path. Using a novel non-linear regression approach to identify life cycles we find that the number of establishments, employees, entries and exits follow in most industries a path that is well represented by at least a part of a cycle. Most industries that show cyclical behaviour run (partially) through their life cycle in the considered time period.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Brenner & Matthias Dorner, 2015. "The Cyclical Dynamics of Industries in West Germany- Testing the Industry Life Cycle Hypothesis," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2015-05, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    • Handle: RePEc:esi:evopap:2015-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eberle, Johanna & Jacobebbinghaus, Peter & Ludsteck, Johannes & Witter, Julia, 2011. "Generation of time-consistent industry codes in the face of classification changes : Simple heuristic based on the Establishment History Panel (BHP)," FDZ Methodenreport 201105_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industry Life Cycle; cyclical development; establishment; employment; industry dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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