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Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession.How to Cope with the Balassa-Samuelson Dilemma

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  • Paul de Grauwe
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

This paper explores the conflict of real and monetary convergence during the EMU run-up of the future Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU member states. Based on a Balassa-Samuelson model of productivity driven inflation, it compares the policy options which might make the compliance possible, i.e., fiscal tightening and nominal appreciation within the ERM2 band. Nominal appreciation within ERM2 seems the better option to achieve the compliance with the Maastricht criteria as no discretionary government intervention is necessary and losses in terms of real growth are less. Having once opted for nominal appreciation within ERM2 by fixing the ERM2 entry rate as the ERM2 central rate (Irish model), a high degree of flexibility is provided in coping with erratic short-term capital inflows. Setting the ERM2 entry rate below or above the ERM2 central rate (Greek model) implies a clear exchange rate path within ERM2 and thereby less exchange rate volatility. But the Greek model also requires accurate information about the future exchange rate path and strict fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria within the projected time frame. Despite the merits of nominal appreciation, countries committed to hard euro pegs might choose fiscal contraction as the second best solution.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul de Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession.How to Cope with the Balassa-Samuelson Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 20, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    • Handle: RePEc:erp:euirsc:p0137
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    3. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    4. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 59(02), pages 171-190, June.
    5. Adela Socol & Imola Drigă, 2013. "Real Convergence in Romania - A Comparative Approach to Non-erm II Countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 13(1), pages 261-272.
    6. CHRISTOVA-BALKANSKA, Iskra, 2017. "Economic Convergence In The Eu And Bulgaria," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 4(1), pages 178-190.
    7. Pelinescu, Elena & Caraiani, Petre, 2006. "Does the Inflation Targeting Have a Positive Role upon the Convergence of the Inflation Rate?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(3), pages 39-50, September.
    8. Iskra CHRISTOVA-BALKANSKA, 2016. "Bulgarian economic development and EU integration. How FDI and EU structural," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 42(1(51)), pages 36-69, june.
    9. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 1182, CESifo.
    10. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2008. "Fiscal convergence in the European Union," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 319-330, December.
    11. Iancu, Aurel, 2010. "Transition, Integration And Convergence - The Case Of Romania -," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 101222, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    12. Aurel Iancu, 2008. "Nominal Convergence," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 53-73, November.
    13. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," Macroeconomics 0503022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2006. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland's monetary policy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 346-365, December.
    15. CRISTOVA-BALKANSKA, Iskra, 2014. "Economic Development Of Bulgaria And Romania In The Post Crisis Period," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 1(1), pages 2-9.

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