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Impact of Covid-19 on Tunisian Imports

Author

Listed:
  • Amal Medini

    (University of Tunis)

  • Chaima Ben Abderrahmen

    (University of Tunis)

  • Leila Baghdadi

    (University of Tunis)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted trade flows between countries, thereby revealing the vulnerability of global value chains. This unexpected event sparked a public debate on devising new policies to increase the resilience of value chains. This study identifies vulnerabilities related to supply chains with a specific focus on Tunisian imports during the period 2019-20. To this end, we select three potential drivers of import vulnerability based on post-pandemic reports and discussions and assess their impact on Tunisia’s overall imports using a quantitative analysis. For each product, we consider: (1) the market concentration of Tunisia’s suppliers, (2) the intensity of imports, and (3) COVID-19 products – that we call ‘essential products’ – as a potential source of import vulnerability, the impact of which we assess separately. These factors are country-specific product characteristics. Then, we identify a model based on a first differences estimator to assess the impact of the change in vulnerable imports on the change in total imports at the country-month and country-quarter levels using import data for the period 2019-20. Finally, we use input-output linkages to assess the level of exposure of Tunisia’s local industries to vulnerable supplies from partner countries through a downstream propagation approach. This framework will help us get insights into Tunisia’s most sensitive imports and industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Amal Medini & Chaima Ben Abderrahmen & Leila Baghdadi, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 on Tunisian Imports," Working Papers 1531, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1531
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    1. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    2. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kohei Imai, 2022. "Who sends me face masks? Evidence for the impacts of COVID‐19 on international trade in medical goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 365-385, February.
    3. Yasuyuki Todo & Kentaro Nakajima & Petr Matous, 2015. "How Do Supply Chain Networks Affect The Resilience Of Firms To Natural Disasters? Evidence From The Great East Japan Earthquake," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 209-229, March.
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