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Subjective Truths

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  • Baillon, A.

Abstract

__Abstract__ On the one hand, economists heavily rely on hard numbers: GDP, growth rate, and exchange rates. On the other hand, their explanations often rely on soft factors: executive confidence in the economy, consumer sentiment, and investor expectations. The hard numbers are objective, but the soft factors are subjective and depend on each individual. Economists increasingly recognize the need to study subjective factors. The first part of the lecture illustrates the key role of subjective truths in modern economics. For instance, measures of subjective well-being are now being proposed to replace or at least complement GDP. Economic policies often rely on subjective forecasting by experts. The second part of the lecture will show that even though they are subjective, the soft factors can still be studied objectively. We will see how to incentivize people to reveal their expectations about future events but also their confidence in their expectations. Finally, I will show how to make people reveal truths that are completely unverifiable.

Suggested Citation

  • Baillon, A., 2015. "Subjective Truths," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management EIA-2015-063-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:euriar:78157
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; subjective well-being; confidence; ambiguity; uncertainty; measurement; prediction markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing

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