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A Manager's Perspective on Combining Expert and Model-based Forecasts

Author

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  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  • Legerstee, R.

Abstract

We study the performance of sales forecasts which linearly combine model-based forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a unique and very large database containing monthly model-based forecasts for many pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by thirty-seven different experts, we document that a combination almost always is most accurate. When correlating the specific weights in these "best" linear combinations with experts' experience and behaviour, we find that more experience is beneficial for forecasts for nearby horizons. And, when the rate of bracketing increases the relative weights converge to a 50%-50% distribution, when there is some slight variation across forecasts horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Legerstee, R., 2007. "A Manager's Perspective on Combining Expert and Model-based Forecasts," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-083-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:10769
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    combining forecasts; experts forecast; model-based forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing

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