IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/emc/wpaper/dte514.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

¿Que tan predecible es la política monetaria? Un análisis econométrico del contenido informativo de los comunicados del Banco de México

Author

Listed:
  • Rodolfo Cermeño

    (Division of Economics, CIDE)

  • Claudia Navarrete

Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether the communication bias of the Bank of Mexico provides information that helps to anticipate the course of monetary policy in subsequent periods. We first construct an objective index of the communication bias, based upon an statistical analysis of key terms and phrases stated in the monthly communications of Banxico. Then, we explore, using probit models, if the communication bias is related to the policy actions taken in subsequent periods, after controlling for inflation expectations and the output gap, as Taylor's rule would suggest. We find that the communication strategy followed by the Bank of Mexico is effective only in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo Cermeño & Claudia Navarrete, 2011. "¿Que tan predecible es la política monetaria? Un análisis econométrico del contenido informativo de los comunicados del Banco de México," Working Papers DTE 514, CIDE, División de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte514
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/RePEc/emc/pdf/DTE/DTE514.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; Mexico; Banxico; probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mateo Hoyos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cideemx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.