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The Medium Run impact of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions. Evidence from the 1918 Inuenza in US cities

Author

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  • Guillaume Chapelle

    (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)

Abstract

This paper uses a difference in differences framework to estimate the causal impact on the mortality rate of Non Pharmaceutical In- terventions (NPIs) used to fight pandemics. The results suggest that NPIs such as school closures and social distancing introduce a trade-off. While they can lower the fatality rate during the peak of the pandemic, they also reduce the herd immunity and significantly increase the death rate in subsequent years. There is no significant association between the implementation of NPIs and cities' growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Chapelle, 2020. "The Medium Run impact of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions. Evidence from the 1918 Inuenza in US cities," THEMA Working Papers 2020-04, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2020-04
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    File URL: http://thema.u-cergy.fr/IMG/pdf/2020-04.pdf
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Spanish Influenza

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    Cited by:

    1. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    3. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2021. "Death, demography and the denominator: Age-adjusted Influenza-18 mortality in Ireland," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    5. Masato Shizume, 2022. "The Great Influenza Pandemic in Japan: Policy Responses and Socioeconomic Consequences," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Oct 2022.
    6. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2020. "Mass Gatherings Contributed to Early COVID-19 Mortality: Evidence from US Sports," Economics working papers 2020-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid

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