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The closer we get the better we are?

Author

Listed:
  • Ben Zion Zilberfarb
  • Nathan Goldstein

Abstract

As a simple implication of rational expectations, repeated predictions of a fixed event should improve over time, as more information is available. Our research examines whether this implication is state dependent. Use of descriptive statistics, tested by Friedman’s and Kruskal-Wallis rank-based tests and further tested by bootstrap method. To find out whether forecasts improvement are state dependent.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Zion Zilberfarb & Nathan Goldstein, 2017. "The closer we get the better we are?," EcoMod2017 10355, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:010027:10355
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Israel; Agent-based modeling; Forecasting; nowcasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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